{"id":2853,"date":"2022-01-01T17:56:20","date_gmt":"2022-01-01T16:56:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/?p=2853"},"modified":"2024-11-04T14:47:55","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T13:47:55","slug":"na-jakem-principu-se-urcuji-smenne-kurzy-na-forexu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/na-jakem-principu-se-urcuji-smenne-kurzy-na-forexu\/","title":{"rendered":"Na jak\u00e9m principu se ur\u010duj\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy na Forexu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Jak se ur\u010duj\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy?<\/h2>\n<p>V porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s jin\u00fdmi finan\u010dn\u00edmi trhy, jako je nap\u0159\u00edklad trh s akciemi \u010di dluhopisy, je devizov\u00fd trh mnohem komplikovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Predikce sm\u011bnn\u00e9ho kurzu zahrnuje p\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdkonnosti cel\u00fdch ekonomik. P\u0159i ur\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f vstupuje do hry mnoho faktor\u016f. V n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku si vysv\u011btl\u00edme hlavn\u00ed faktory, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed vliv na sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy m\u011bnov\u00fdch p\u00e1r\u016f obchodovan\u00fdch na forexu.<\/p>\n<h2>Ceny na trhu odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed budouc\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h2>\n<p>Forexov\u00fd trh je jedn\u00edm z finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f. Cena na jak\u00e9mkoli finan\u010dn\u00edm trhu neodr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cenu. Sp\u00ed\u0161e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b budoucnosti na z\u00e1klad\u011b informac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou aktu\u00e1ln\u011b dostupn\u00e9. Prvo\u0159ad\u00fdm a d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm faktorem ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm forexov\u00e9 sazby mezi jak\u00fdmikoli dv\u011bma zem\u011bmi je proto o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje.<\/p>\n<p>Term\u00edn \u201ebudouc\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c zn\u00ed v\u00e1gn\u011b a obecn\u011b. Vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zka \u2013 \u201eo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed \u010deho?\u201c V\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch odstavc\u00edch se zam\u011b\u0159\u00edme a r\u016fzn\u00e9 faktory, kter\u00e9 ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy m\u011bnov\u00fdch p\u00e1r\u016f na forexov\u00e9m trhu.<\/p>\n<h2>Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky<\/h2>\n<p>Sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy jsou v podstat\u011b srovn\u00e1n\u00edm politik dvou zem\u00ed, ve kter\u00fdch jsou m\u011bny pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny. Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pochopit, \u017ee sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy nejsou absolutn\u00ed, n\u00fdbr\u017e relativn\u00ed. P\u0159i srovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fdch politik libovoln\u00fdch dvou zem\u00ed jsou mimo jin\u00e9 zva\u017eov\u00e1ny n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed faktory:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Inflace<\/strong>: Sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz je v podstat\u011b pom\u011br mezi o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm po\u010dtem jednotek jedn\u00e9 m\u011bny a o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm po\u010dtem jednotek jin\u00e9 m\u011bny na devizov\u00e9m trhu. Inflace zvy\u0161uje po\u010det m\u011bnov\u00fdch jednotek. Pokud tedy jedna m\u011bna \u010del\u00ed inflaci ve v\u00fd\u0161i 5 %, zat\u00edmco druh\u00e1 m\u011bna \u010del\u00ed inflaci pouze ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3 %, pak se pom\u011br mezi t\u011bmito dv\u011bma mus\u00ed nutn\u011b zm\u011bnit. M\u00edra inflace je tedy hlavn\u00edm faktorem p\u0159i ur\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u00edry inflace v\u0161ak \u010dasto nevypov\u00eddaj\u00ed o skute\u010dn\u00e9m stavu n\u00e1rodn\u00ed ekonomiky. \u00da\u010dastn\u00edci trhu proto pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed vlastn\u00ed odhady m\u00edry inflace a p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed s vlastn\u00edmi ocen\u011bn\u00edmi m\u011bnov\u00fdch p\u00e1r\u016f.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby<\/strong>: Pokud investo\u0159i dr\u017e\u00ed ur\u010ditou m\u011bnu, dostanou v\u00fdnos ve smyslu \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby platn\u00e9 pro danou m\u011bnu. Jestli\u017ee by tedy investo\u0159i dr\u017eeli m\u011bnu s 7% v\u00fdnosem na rozd\u00edl od 4% v\u00fdnosu, nakonec by vyd\u011blali v\u00edce. Proto jsou \u00farokov\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy tak\u00e9 zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny do forexov\u00fdch sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou kotov\u00e1ny na trhu. M\u011bnov\u00e9 valuace jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00e1chyln\u00e9 v\u016f\u010di zm\u011bn\u00e1m \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Mal\u00e1 zm\u011bna t\u00e9to sazby vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 velkou reakci \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f trhu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky se proto na devizov\u00e9m trhu st\u00e1vaj\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edky, nebo\u0165 kontroluj\u00ed m\u011bnovou politiku, kter\u00e1 je jedn\u00edm z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch determinant\u016f hodnoty m\u011bny.<\/p>\n<h2>Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiky<\/h2>\n<p>Zat\u00edmco m\u011bnovou politiku kontroluje centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka zem\u011b, fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiku m\u00e1 na starosti m\u00edstn\u00ed vl\u00e1da. Nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed zm\u011bny v m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice se tedy rovn\u011b\u017e prom\u00edtaj\u00ed do sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f m\u011bn. Mezi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 faktory fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiky ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz pat\u0159\u00ed zejm\u00e9na:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Ve\u0159ejn\u00fd dluh<\/strong>: Velk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed znamen\u00e1, \u017ee vl\u00e1da zem\u011b bude muset platit obrovsk\u00e9 \u00faroky v\u011b\u0159itel\u016fm. Investo\u0159i budou analyzovat, zda lze tyto platby vybrat z dan\u011b, tj. ze st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1soby. Pokud ne, pak to signalizuje, \u017ee zem\u011b sv\u016fj dluh zpen\u011b\u017e\u00ed, tj. vytiskne v\u00edce m\u011bny a dluh splat\u00ed. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee dnes obrovsk\u00fd ve\u0159ejn\u00fd dluh je sign\u00e1lem probl\u00e9m\u016f p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch v budoucnu, devizov\u00fd trh odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed i toto v hodnot\u011b, kter\u00e1 je na trhu k\u00f3tov\u00e1na.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee op\u011bt existuje relativn\u00ed srovn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi ve\u0159ejn\u00fdmi dluhy obou dot\u010den\u00fdch zem\u00ed. Na absolutn\u00edch \u010d\u00e1stk\u00e1ch nemus\u00ed tolik z\u00e1le\u017eet!<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit<\/strong>: Dal\u0161\u00edm hlavn\u00edm faktorem, kter\u00fd ovliv\u0148uje sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy na forexov\u00e9m trhu, je rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit. Rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit je toti\u017e p\u0159edstupn\u011bm ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho dluhu. Vl\u00e1dy utr\u00e1cej\u00ed v\u00edce pen\u011bz, ne\u017e si mohou dovolit, a v d\u016fsledku toho se dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed do rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho deficitu. Tento deficit pak mus\u00ed b\u00fdt financov\u00e1n dluhem. Probl\u00e9my t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho dluhu a jeho dopad na sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy na <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/rubrika\/forex\/\">forexu<\/a> ji\u017e byly diskutov\u00e1ny ve v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9m bod\u011b.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Politick\u00e1 stabilita<\/h2>\n<p>Rovn\u011b\u017e d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 pro sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy je politick\u00e1 stabilita dan\u00e9 zem\u011b. Je to proto, \u017ee modern\u00ed pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed syst\u00e9m je syst\u00e9mem fiat pen\u011bz \u2013 tedy konven\u010dn\u00edch m\u011bn. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee pen\u00edze nejsou nic jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e slib vl\u00e1dy. Existuje-li tedy nebezpe\u010d\u00ed pro vl\u00e1du, existuje nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee slib s\u00e1m o sob\u011b m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt bezcenn\u00fd, jakmile nastoup\u00ed nov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da. Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee nov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da mo\u017en\u00e1 bude cht\u00edt prosadit novou fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiku. Proto kdykoli zem\u011b \u010del\u00ed geopolitick\u00fdm ot\u0159es\u016fm, jej\u00ed m\u011bna obvykle na devizov\u00fdch trz\u00edch v\u00fdrazn\u011b klesne na hodnot\u011b.<\/p>\n<h2>Cenov\u00e1 spekulace a tr\u017en\u00ed sentiment<\/h2>\n<p>Pamatujte, \u017ee m\u00e1 forexov\u00fd trh extr\u00e9mn\u011b spekulativn\u00ed povahu. To je d\u00e1no p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b t\u00edm, \u017ee forex umo\u017e\u0148uje obchodn\u00edk\u016fm vyu\u017e\u00edt finan\u010dn\u00ed p\u00e1ku, kter\u00e1 jim dovol\u00ed n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t zv\u00fd\u0161it jejich obchod pomoc\u00ed vyp\u016fj\u010den\u00fdch pen\u011bz a pot\u00e9 s nimi obchodovat na forexov\u00e9m trhu. Tr\u017en\u00ed sentimenty proto p\u0159eb\u00edraj\u00ed devizov\u00fd trh v\u00edce ne\u017e jin\u00e9 trhy aktiv kv\u016fli snadn\u00e9 dostupnosti vyp\u016fj\u010den\u00fdch pen\u011bz.<\/p>\n<p>Kv\u016fli snadn\u00e9 dostupnosti finan\u010dn\u00ed p\u00e1ky je forexov\u00fd trh n\u00e1chyln\u00fd k\u00a0iracion\u00e1ln\u00edmu obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b deformovat sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy nebo vytv\u00e1\u0159et dlouhodob\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Forex \u2013 tedy trh s devizami, se ze v\u0161ech finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f \u0159ad\u00ed mezi ty nejslo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy toti\u017e ovliv\u0148uje cel\u00e1 \u0159ada faktor\u016f. Jak se na forexu ur\u010duj\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy a jak predikovat ceny ciz\u00edch m\u011bn?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2864,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"Sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy (FOREX) ovliv\u0148uje cel\u00e1 \u0159ada faktor\u016f. Jak se na forexu ur\u010duj\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy a jak predikovat ceny ciz\u00edch m\u011bn?","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[196],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex"],"modified_by":"Krpensk\u00fd Martin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2853\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}