{"id":3506,"date":"2022-05-27T00:54:29","date_gmt":"2022-05-26T22:54:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/?p=3506"},"modified":"2024-08-11T20:54:45","modified_gmt":"2024-08-11T18:54:45","slug":"buffetuv-indikator-jak-jsou-akcie-nadhodnocene","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/buffetuv-indikator-jak-jsou-akcie-nadhodnocene\/","title":{"rendered":"Buffett\u016fv Indik\u00e1tor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Buffett\u016fv indik\u00e1tor je m\u011b\u0159\u00edtkem ocen\u011bn\u00ed akciov\u00e9ho trhu. Vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 se vyd\u011blen\u00edm celkov\u00e9 tr\u017en\u00ed kapitalizace v\u0161ech ve\u0159ejn\u011b obchodovan\u00fdch akci\u00ed celkov\u00fdm hrub\u00fdm dom\u00e1c\u00edm produktem (HDP) dan\u00e9 zem\u011b. My\u0161lenka Buffettova indik\u00e1toru spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee akciov\u00fd trh by m\u011bl odr\u00e1\u017eet celkovou velikost a zdrav\u00ed ekonomiky. Warren Buffett, zn\u00e1m\u00fd investor a gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel spole\u010dnosti Berkshire Hathaway, pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 tento ukazatel k posouzen\u00ed, zda je trh nadhodnocen\u00fd nebo podhodnocen\u00fd.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Buffett\u016fv Indik\u00e1tor (Market Cap to GDP Ratio)<\/strong> se m\u011b\u0159\u00ed jako pom\u011br tr\u017en\u00ed kapitalizace indexu Wilshire 5000 (zahrnuje 5000 sv\u011btov\u00fdch akci\u00ed) a americk\u00e9ho hrub\u00e9ho n\u00e1rodn\u00edho produktu (GDP &#8211; ). GDP vyjad\u0159uje hodnotu statk\u016f a slu\u017eeb vyprodukovan\u00fdch za dan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed americk\u00fdmi v\u00fdrobn\u00edmi faktory bez ohledu na jejich um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 se<\/strong> jako dal\u0161\u00ed ze zp\u016fsob\u016f vyhodnocen\u00ed situac\u00ed, kdy je akciov\u00fd trh potenci\u00e1ln\u011b nadhodnocen\u00fd nebo podhodnocen\u00fd ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s historick\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem, kter\u00fd je m\u011b\u0159en ji\u017e n\u011bkolik desetilet\u00ed, tak\u017ee se nejedn\u00e1 o n\u011bjak\u00fd nov\u00fd indik\u00e1tor, ale tento indik\u00e1tor zn\u00e1 snad ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo kdy sly\u0161el o Warrenu Buffettovi, kter\u00fd tento syst\u00e9m hodnocen\u00ed valuace akciov\u00e9ho trhu proslavil. Jde o formu n\u00e1sobku ocen\u011bn\u00ed cena\/tr\u017eba pro celou zemi.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Oproti tomu HDP m\u011b\u0159\u00ed hodnotu statk\u016f a slu\u017eeb vyprodukovan\u00fdch za dan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed USA bez ohledu na jejich n\u00e1rodnost. Pro \u00fa\u010dely tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku nen\u00ed nutno d\u00e1le rozeb\u00edrat implikace.<\/li>\n<li>Od po\u010d\u00e1tku 70. let se indik\u00e1tor pohyboval v\u00a0rozmez\u00ed od p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 35% do 140% \u2013 neklesl n\u00ed\u017ee ne\u017e 35,19% ve 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 1982 a nevystoupal v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017e 140,60% v\u00a01. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2000. V\u00a0grafu n\u00ed\u017ee je vid\u011bt jeho pr\u016fb\u011bh.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"attachment_3507\" style=\"width: 1200px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Wilshire-5000-Index-divided-by-US-GDP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3507\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3507\" src=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Wilshire-5000-Index-divided-by-US-GDP.png\" alt=\"Buffet\u016fv indik\u00e1tor\" width=\"1200\" height=\"1000\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Wilshire-5000-Index-divided-by-US-GDP.png 1200w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Wilshire-5000-Index-divided-by-US-GDP-300x250.png 300w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Wilshire-5000-Index-divided-by-US-GDP-1024x853.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Wilshire-5000-Index-divided-by-US-GDP-768x640.png 768w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Wilshire-5000-Index-divided-by-US-GDP-48x40.png 48w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Wilshire-5000-Index-divided-by-US-GDP-38x32.png 38w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Wilshire-5000-Index-divided-by-US-GDP-96x80.png 96w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Wilshire-5000-Index-divided-by-US-GDP-162x135.png 162w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-3507\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Buffet\u016fv indik\u00e1tor od roku 1970 do roku 2022. Jsou tedy podle Buffetova indik\u00e1toru akcie drah\u00e9 a nadhodnocen\u00e9?<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Jak\u00e9 maj\u00ed tyto informace vypov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed hodnotu? <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>U\u017e jen z\u00a0pohledu na graf je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee hodnoty nad hranic\u00ed 100% nevydr\u017eely v\u00a0t\u00e9to oblasti dlouho a n\u00e1sledovala korekce. Nejdel\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00edm, po kter\u00e9 indik\u00e1tor z\u016fstal nad hranic\u00ed 100%, bylo obdob\u00ed od 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 1997 do 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2001, pota\u017emo 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2002, pokud bychom zanedbali pokles na 98,44% ve 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2001.<\/p>\n<p>Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda m\u016f\u017ee indik\u00e1tor slou\u017eit jako p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f budoucnosti. Zjistit to m\u016f\u017eeme mnoha zp\u016fsoby. Ten m\u016fj vypadal n\u00e1sledovn\u011b:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Obdob\u00ed jsem rozd\u011blil na jednotliv\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed: 70. l\u00e9ta 20. stolet\u00ed \u2013 00. l\u00e9ta 21. stolet\u00ed<\/li>\n<li>V\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m z\u00a0desetilet\u00ed jsem vybral nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed a nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed hodnotu indexu<\/li>\n<li>Od t\u011bchto hodnot jsem pak vypo\u010d\u00edtal 5 a 10let\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy, a to jak pro Wilshire, tak pro S&amp;P 500<\/li>\n<li>V 1. desetilet\u00ed nov\u00e9ho tis\u00edcilet\u00ed jsem vybral 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2003 jako \u201edno\u201c po spekulativn\u00ed bublin\u011b, od kter\u00e9ho za\u010dal posledn\u00ed bull market, kter\u00fd skon\u010dil v roce 200<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Probl\u00e9m spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0tom, \u017ee nikdy nem\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159esn\u011b v\u011bd\u011bt, kdy se nach\u00e1z\u00edme na nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edch, nebo nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hodnot\u00e1ch. Od roku 1982, kdy zapo\u010dal velk\u00fd b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh (p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00fd propadem v\u00a0roce 1987 a m\u00edrnou reces\u00ed na po\u010d\u00e1tku 90. let) by \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00a0hodnot nebyla dost n\u00edzk\u00e1.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Hodnota z\u00a01. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2003, kdy za\u010dal doposud posledn\u00ed b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh, kter\u00fd skon\u010dil propadem v\u00a0roce 2008, by se tehdy jevila p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysok\u00e1. Investor\u016fm by tak unikla jedna velk\u00e1 investi\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>C\u00edlem \u010dl\u00e1nku nebylo uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9 na z\u00e1klad\u011b indik\u00e1toru dos\u00e1hnout vysok\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f, proto\u017ee spr\u00e1vn\u011b na\u010dasovat trh nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9. <strong>Indik\u00e1tor by mohl sp\u00ed\u0161e p\u016fsobit jako \u201ered flag\u201c v\u00a0dob\u00e1ch, kdy se pohybuje nad hodnotami 100%.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Buffett\u016fv indik\u00e1tor je m\u011b\u0159\u00edtkem ocen\u011bn\u00ed akciov\u00e9ho trhu. Vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 se vyd\u011blen\u00edm celkov\u00e9 tr\u017en\u00ed kapitalizace v\u0161ech ve\u0159ejn\u011b obchodovan\u00fdch akci\u00ed celkov\u00fdm hrub\u00fdm dom\u00e1c\u00edm produktem (HDP) dan\u00e9 zem\u011b. My\u0161lenka Buffettova indik\u00e1toru spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee akciov\u00fd trh by m\u011bl odr\u00e1\u017eet celkovou velikost a zdrav\u00ed ekonomiky. Warren Buffett, zn\u00e1m\u00fd investor a gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel spole\u010dnosti Berkshire Hathaway, pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 tento ukazatel k [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3508,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"Buffett\u016fv Indik\u00e1tor pom\u00e1h\u00e1 zjistit, zda jsou akcie drah\u00e9 nebo levn\u00e9","_seopress_titles_desc":"Buffett\u016fv Indik\u00e1tor (Market Cap to GDP Ratio) se m\u011b\u0159\u00ed jako pom\u011br tr\u017en\u00ed kapitalizace indexu Wilshire 5000 (5000 akci\u00ed) a americk\u00e9ho HDP.","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[194],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-akcie"],"modified_by":"Krpensk\u00fd Martin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3506\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3508"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}