{"id":4021,"date":"2022-09-29T16:39:27","date_gmt":"2022-09-29T14:39:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/?p=4021"},"modified":"2024-12-29T14:31:56","modified_gmt":"2024-12-29T13:31:56","slug":"byci-a-medvedi-trh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/byci-a-medvedi-trh\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed (Bull market) a medv\u011bd\u00ed trh (Bear Market)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy se pohybuj\u00ed v cyklech jako na houpa\u010dce &#8211; obdob\u00ed r\u016fstu (b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh) st\u0159\u00eddaj\u00ed obdob\u00ed pokles\u016f (medv\u011bd\u00ed trh). Pro tyto dva z\u00e1kladn\u00ed trendy se v\u017eily symboly b\u00fdka a medv\u011bda. Nen\u00ed to n\u00e1hoda &#8211; b\u00fdk p\u0159i \u00fatoku prudce vr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed rohy vzh\u016fru, co\u017e symbolizuje rostouc\u00ed ceny a optimismus na trz\u00edch. Naopak medv\u011bd \u00fato\u010d\u00ed tlapami shora dol\u016f, podobn\u011b jako klesaj\u00edc\u00ed ceny b\u011bhem pesimistick\u00fdch obdob\u00ed. Toto pojmenov\u00e1n\u00ed nabylo takovou poularitu, \u017ee na <strong>Wall Street existuje i bronzov\u00e1 socha zn\u00e1zor\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00edho b\u00fdka.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Obchodn\u00edci, kte\u0159\u00ed nakupuj\u00ed kdy\u017e jde trh nahoru se naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed <strong>&#8222;bulls &#8211; b\u00fdci&#8220;<\/strong> a trh samotn\u00fd se naz\u00fdv\u00e1 <strong>&#8222;bull market &#8211; b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh&#8220;<\/strong>\u00a0a opa\u010dn\u011b, kdy\u017e trh jde dol\u016f obchodn\u00edci jsou\u00a0<strong>&#8222;bears &#8211; medv\u011bdi&#8220;<\/strong>\u00a0a samotn\u00fd trend je\u00a0<strong>&#8222;bear market &#8211; medv\u011bd\u00ed trh&#8220;. <\/strong>Pro\u010d to tak je\u00a0nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b jasn\u00e9, ale existuje n\u011bkolik teori\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Rozpoznat, v jak\u00e9 f\u00e1zi se trh pr\u00e1v\u011b nach\u00e1z\u00ed, je pro \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 investov\u00e1n\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9. Zat\u00edmco b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed zisky t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161em, medv\u011bd\u00ed trh prov\u011b\u0159\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 kvality investor\u016f a jejich strategi\u00ed. Poj\u010fme se podrobn\u011bji pod\u00edvat na charakteristiky medv\u011bd\u00edho a b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trhu a jak je m\u016f\u017eeme co nejl\u00e9pe rozpoznat.<\/p>\n<h2>Bear Market: kdy\u017e trhy padaj\u00ed<\/h2>\n<p>Investov\u00e1n\u00ed na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 j\u00edzdu na horsk\u00e9 dr\u00e1ze &#8211; <strong>st\u0159\u00eddaj\u00ed se obdob\u00ed r\u016fstu a poklesu<\/strong>. Pr\u00e1v\u011b obdob\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u00fdch pokles\u016f ozna\u010dujeme jako <strong>medv\u011bd\u00ed trh (Bear Market)<\/strong>, kter\u00fd p\u0159edstavuje jednu z nejn\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zkou\u0161ek pro ka\u017ed\u00e9ho investora.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"my-list\">\n<li>Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 trv\u00e1n\u00ed: 9-18 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f<\/li>\n<li>Typick\u00fd pokles: 20-40% od vrcholu<\/li>\n<li>Nejhor\u0161\u00ed medv\u011bd\u00ed trhy: a\u017e 80% pokles (nap\u0159. 2000-2002 dot-com bublina)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"highlight-box\">Medv\u011bd\u00ed trh je term\u00edn, kter\u00fd pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed obchodn\u00edci s akciemi pro ozna\u010den\u00ed tzv. &#8222;pesimistick\u00e9ho trhu&#8220;. Na rozd\u00edl od r\u016fstu se za pesimistick\u00fd trh pova\u017euje proces, kdy akcie a jin\u00e9 cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry p\u0159\u00edmo klesaj\u00ed nebo zaost\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Na takzvan\u00e9m &#8222;medv\u011bd\u00edm trhu&#8220; se mnoho v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch investor\u016f boj\u00ed nebo v\u00e1h\u00e1 s dal\u0161\u00edmi investicemi. Hlavn\u00edm d\u016fvodem je to, \u017ee investo\u0159i v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee se jim tak \u010di onak nebude da\u0159it.<\/div>\n<h2>Jak spolehliv\u011b rozpoznat medv\u011bd\u00ed trh<\/h2>\n<p>Identifikace medv\u011bd\u00edho trhu nen\u00ed jen o sledov\u00e1n\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00edch cen. Je to komplexn\u00ed proces, kter\u00fd vy\u017eaduje anal\u00fdzu n\u011bkolika kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch faktor\u016f. Pod\u00edvejme se na nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sign\u00e1ly, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1m mohou pomoci v\u010das rozpoznat p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed medv\u011bd\u00ed trh.<\/p>\n<h3>Technick\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly na grafu<\/h3>\n<p>Hlavn\u00edm pozn\u00e1vac\u00edm znamen\u00edm je s\u00e9rie klesaj\u00edc\u00edch vrchol\u016f &#8211; <strong>ka\u017ed\u00fd n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed vrchol ceny aktiva je ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ten p\u0159edchoz\u00ed<\/strong>. Tento vzor vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed charakteristick\u00fd sestupn\u00fd trend. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm indik\u00e1torem je tak\u00e9 pozice <strong>ceny v\u016f\u010di dlouhodob\u00fdm klouzav\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011br\u016fm<\/strong>, zejm\u00e9na 200denn\u00edmu. Kdy\u017e cena vytrvale z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pod t\u00edmto pr\u016fm\u011brem, je to \u010dasto spolehliv\u00fd sign\u00e1l medv\u011bd\u00edho trendu. Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed pozornost je t\u0159eba v\u011bnovat tak\u00e9 obchodn\u00edm objem\u016fm &#8211; p\u0159i medv\u011bd\u00edm trhu <strong>\u010dasto vid\u00edme v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed objemy b\u011bhem dn\u016f, kdy cena kles\u00e1<\/strong>, co\u017e signalizuje siln\u00fd prodejn\u00ed tlak.<\/p>\n<h3>Fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed sign\u00e1ly<\/h3>\n<p>Zat\u00edmco technick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza n\u00e1m ukazuje &#8222;co&#8220; se d\u011bje, fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed anal\u00fdza n\u00e1m pom\u00e1h\u00e1 pochopit &#8222;pro\u010d&#8220;. V obdob\u00ed medv\u011bd\u00edho trhu typicky pozorujeme <strong>zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky firem<\/strong>. Spole\u010dnosti za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed reportovat ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed zisky nebo dokonce ztr\u00e1ty, co\u017e d\u00e1le posiluje negativn\u00ed sentiment na trhu.<\/p>\n<p>D\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm indik\u00e1torem je tak\u00e9 v\u00fdvoj makroekonomick\u00fdch ukazatel\u016f. Rostouc\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanost a klesaj\u00edc\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst jsou \u010dasto p\u0159edzv\u011bst\u00ed nebo pr\u016fvodn\u00edm jevem medv\u011bd\u00edho trhu. Kdy\u017e k tomu p\u0159id\u00e1me pesimistick\u00e9 v\u00fdhledy analytik\u016f, m\u00e1me p\u0159ed sebou kompletn\u00ed obraz za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edho nebo ji\u017e prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho medv\u011bd\u00edho trhu.<\/p>\n<h3>Co p\u0159esn\u011b znamen\u00e1 medv\u011bd\u00ed trh?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"whitespace-pre-wrap break-words\">Medv\u011bd\u00ed trh nast\u00e1v\u00e1, kdy\u017e na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 pesimismus a ceny aktiv vytrvale klesaj\u00ed. Klasicky se za medv\u011bd\u00ed trh pova\u017euje pokles o v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 % od ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch maxim. N\u00e1zev poch\u00e1z\u00ed z pohybu medv\u011bda p\u0159i \u00fatoku &#8211; shora dol\u016f, co\u017e symbolicky vystihuje klesaj\u00edc\u00ed trend cen.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Zku\u0161en\u00ed investo\u0159i sleduj\u00ed n\u011bkolik kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch sign\u00e1l\u016f:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"my-list\">\n<li>Klesaj\u00edc\u00ed firemn\u00ed zisky a zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se ekonomick\u00e1 data<\/li>\n<li>Rostouc\u00ed pesimismus mezi investory a v m\u00e9di\u00edch<\/li>\n<li>Technick\u00e9 indik\u00e1tory ukazuj\u00edc\u00ed na dlouhodob\u00fd sestupn\u00fd trend<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Perfektn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem medv\u011bd\u00edho trendu je sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj akci\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), jak m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt na p\u0159ilo\u017een\u00e9m grafu. Cena akci\u00ed vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed sestupn\u00fd trend s postupn\u011b se sni\u017euj\u00edc\u00edmi vrcholy, co\u017e je typick\u00fd znak medv\u011bd\u00edho trhu.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_8739\" style=\"width: 1011px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/medvedi-trh.png\"><img alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8739\" class=\"wp-image-8739 size-full\" title=\"Medv\u011bd\u00ed trh\" src=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/medvedi-trh.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1011\" height=\"516\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/medvedi-trh.png 1011w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/medvedi-trh-150x77.png 150w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/medvedi-trh-768x392.png 768w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/medvedi-trh-78x40.png 78w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/medvedi-trh-63x32.png 63w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/medvedi-trh-157x80.png 157w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/medvedi-trh-265x135.png 265w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1011px) 100vw, 1011px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-8739\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Medv\u011bd\u00ed trh m\u016f\u017ee trvat i n\u011bkolik let.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Medv\u011bd\u00ed trh je \u010dasto ztoto\u017e\u0148ov\u00e1n s negativn\u00edm sentimentem. <strong>Negativn\u00ed sentiment<\/strong> obvykle znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ekonomika nefunguje dob\u0159e a \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina investor\u016f nen\u00ed ochotna utr\u00e1cet sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze za nov\u00e9 investice. V obdob\u00ed medv\u011bd\u00edho trhu se neobl\u00edben\u00e9 i zn\u00e1m\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti sna\u017e\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bt r\u016fzn\u00e9 kroky, jen aby udr\u017eely sv\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti nad vodou, proto\u017ee v opa\u010dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b mohou zkrachovat.<\/p>\n<p>Mnoho spole\u010dnost\u00ed se z medv\u011bd\u00edho trhu vzpamatuje a v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch letech bude vykazovat rekordn\u00ed zisky a ceny akci\u00ed p\u016fjdou v\u00fdrazn\u011b nahoru. V n\u011bkolika m\u00e1lo p\u0159\u00edpadech v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u00e1kup akci\u00ed, kdy\u017e jsou ceny velmi n\u00edzk\u00e9 riskantn\u00ed. Medv\u011bd\u00ed trh je p\u0159irozenou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00edho cyklu.<\/p>\n<p>I kdy\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt psychicky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fd, p\u0159edstavuje tak\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost pro trp\u011bliv\u00e9 investory, kte\u0159\u00ed dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edt ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch cen k budov\u00e1n\u00ed kvalitn\u00edho dlouhodob\u00e9ho portfolia. Kl\u00ed\u010dem k \u00fasp\u011bchu je d\u016fkladn\u00e1 anal\u00fdza, discipl\u00edna a schopnost udr\u017eet emoce pod kontrolou.<\/p>\n<h3>P\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti v dob\u011b pokles\u016f<\/h3>\n<p>I kdy\u017e medv\u011bd\u00ed trh m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro investory stresuj\u00edc\u00ed, nab\u00edz\u00ed tak\u00e9 jedine\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti. &#8222;Nejbohat\u0161\u00ed investo\u0159i se rod\u00ed v medv\u011bd\u00edch trz\u00edch,&#8220; \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 zn\u00e1m\u00e9 investorsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edslov\u00ed. Pro\u010d? Proto\u017ee kvalitn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti se b\u011bhem pokles\u016f \u010dasto obchoduj\u00ed za v\u00fdrazn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ceny.<\/p>\n<p>B\u011bhem medv\u011bd\u00edho trhu m\u016f\u017eeme d\u011blat n\u011bkolik v\u011bc\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"my-list\">\n<li>Zachovat chladnou hlavu a nenechat se ovl\u00e1dnout emocemi<\/li>\n<li>Zam\u011b\u0159it se na fundament\u00e1ln\u011b siln\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti<\/li>\n<li>Zv\u00e1\u017eit pravideln\u00e9 investov\u00e1n\u00ed (dollar-cost averaging)<\/li>\n<li>Vyu\u017e\u00edvat dividendov\u00e9 akcie, nebo defensivn\u00ed sektory, jako utility, spot\u0159ebn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed, healthcare<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Historicky medv\u011bd\u00ed trhy trvaj\u00ed v pr\u016fm\u011bru 9 a\u017e 18 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/strong> N\u011bkter\u00e9 jsou krat\u0161\u00ed, jin\u00e9 mohou p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat i n\u011bkolik let. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je p\u0159ipravit se na mo\u017enost dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edho poklesu a p\u0159izp\u016fsobit tomu svou investi\u010dn\u00ed strategii.<\/p>\n<h2>Bull Market: kdy\u017e trhy rostou<\/h2>\n<p>Jedn\u00edm z nejatraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch obdob\u00ed pro investory je <strong>b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh (Bull Market)<\/strong>. Je to \u010das, kdy optimismus h\u00fdbe trhy vzh\u016fru a investo\u0159i s nad\u0161en\u00edm sleduj\u00ed, jak jejich portfolia nab\u00fdvaj\u00ed na hodnot\u011b. Jako kdy\u017e b\u00fdk p\u0159i \u00fatoku zved\u00e1 svou ob\u011b\u0165 na roz\u00edch sm\u011brem vzh\u016fru, tak i ceny akci\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edch aktiv vytrvale stoupaj\u00ed k nov\u00fdm maxim\u016fm.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"my-list\">\n<li>Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 trv\u00e1n\u00ed: 2-5 let<\/li>\n<li>Typick\u00fd r\u016fst: 50-200% od dna<\/li>\n<li>Nejlep\u0161\u00ed b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trhy: a\u017e 400% r\u016fst (nap\u0159. 2009-2020 po finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"highlight-box\">B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh je term\u00edn, kter\u00fd pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed obchodn\u00edci s akciemi pro ozna\u010den\u00ed tzv. &#8222;optimistick\u00e9ho trhu&#8220;. Na rozd\u00edl od poklesu se za optimistick\u00fd trh pova\u017euje proces, kdy akcie a jin\u00e9 cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry p\u0159\u00edmo rostou nebo prosperuj\u00ed. Na takzvan\u00e9m &#8222;b\u00fd\u010d\u00edm trhu&#8220; mnoho investor\u016f aktivn\u011b nakupuje a hled\u00e1 nov\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti. Hlavn\u00edm d\u016fvodem je to, \u017ee investo\u0159i v\u011b\u0159\u00ed v dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst a prosperitu.<\/div>\n<h2>Jak spolehliv\u011b rozpoznat b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh<\/h2>\n<p class=\"whitespace-pre-wrap break-words\">Identifikace b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trhu nen\u00ed jen o sledov\u00e1n\u00ed rostouc\u00edch cen. Je to komplexn\u00ed proces, kter\u00fd vy\u017eaduje anal\u00fdzu n\u011bkolika kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch faktor\u016f. Pod\u00edvejme se na nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sign\u00e1ly, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1m mohou pomoci v\u010das rozpoznat p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh.<\/p>\n<h3>Technick\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly na grafu<\/h3>\n<p>Hlavn\u00edm pozn\u00e1vac\u00edm znamen\u00edm je s\u00e9rie rostouc\u00edch vrchol\u016f &#8211; <strong>ka\u017ed\u00fd n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed vrchol ceny aktiva je vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ten p\u0159edchoz\u00ed<\/strong>. Tento vzor vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed charakteristick\u00fd vzestupn\u00fd trend. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm indik\u00e1torem je tak\u00e9 pozice <strong>ceny v\u016f\u010di dlouhodob\u00fdm klouzav\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011br\u016fm<\/strong>, zejm\u00e9na 200denn\u00edmu. Kdy\u017e cena vytrvale z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nad t\u00edmto pr\u016fm\u011brem, je to \u010dasto spolehliv\u00fd sign\u00e1l b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trendu. Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed pozornost je t\u0159eba v\u011bnovat tak\u00e9 obchodn\u00edm objem\u016fm &#8211; p\u0159i b\u00fd\u010d\u00edm trhu <strong>\u010dasto vid\u00edme v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed objemy b\u011bhem dn\u016f, kdy cena roste<\/strong>, co\u017e signalizuje siln\u00fd n\u00e1kupn\u00ed tlak.<\/p>\n<h3>Fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed sign\u00e1ly<\/h3>\n<p>Zat\u00edmco technick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza n\u00e1m ukazuje &#8222;co&#8220; se d\u011bje, fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed anal\u00fdza n\u00e1m pom\u00e1h\u00e1 pochopit &#8222;pro\u010d&#8220;. V obdob\u00ed b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trhu typicky pozorujeme <strong>zlep\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky firem<\/strong>. Spole\u010dnosti za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed reportovat vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed zisky a r\u016fst, co\u017e d\u00e1le posiluje pozitivn\u00ed sentiment na trhu.<\/p>\n<p>D\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm indik\u00e1torem je tak\u00e9 v\u00fdvoj makroekonomick\u00fdch ukazatel\u016f. Klesaj\u00edc\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanost a rostouc\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst jsou \u010dasto p\u0159edzv\u011bst\u00ed nebo pr\u016fvodn\u00edm jevem b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trhu. Kdy\u017e k tomu p\u0159id\u00e1me optimistick\u00e9 v\u00fdhledy analytik\u016f, m\u00e1me p\u0159ed sebou kompletn\u00ed obraz za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edho nebo ji\u017e prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trhu.<\/p>\n<h3>Co p\u0159esn\u011b znamen\u00e1 b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"whitespace-pre-wrap break-words\">B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh nast\u00e1v\u00e1, kdy\u017e na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 optimismus a ceny aktiv vytrvale rostou. Klasicky se za b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh pova\u017euje r\u016fst o v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 % od ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch minim. N\u00e1zev poch\u00e1z\u00ed z pohybu b\u00fdka p\u0159i \u00fatoku &#8211; zdola nahoru, co\u017e symbolicky vystihuje rostouc\u00ed trend cen.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Zku\u0161en\u00ed investo\u0159i sleduj\u00ed n\u011bkolik kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch sign\u00e1l\u016f:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"my-list\">\n<li>Rostouc\u00ed firemn\u00ed zisky a zlep\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se ekonomick\u00e1 data<\/li>\n<li>Rostouc\u00ed optimismus mezi investory a v m\u00e9di\u00edch<\/li>\n<li>Technick\u00e9 indik\u00e1tory ukazuj\u00edc\u00ed na dlouhodob\u00fd vzestupn\u00fd trend<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Perfektn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trendu je sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj akci\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Palantir Technologies (PLTR), jak m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt na p\u0159ilo\u017een\u00e9m grafu. Cena akci\u00ed vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed vzestupn\u00fd trend s postupn\u011b se zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edmi vrcholy, co\u017e je typick\u00fd znak b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trhu.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_8746\" style=\"width: 1013px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bull-market.png\"><img alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8746\" class=\"wp-image-8746 size-full\" title=\"B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh\" src=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bull-market.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1013\" height=\"518\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bull-market.png 1013w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bull-market-150x77.png 150w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bull-market-768x393.png 768w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bull-market-78x40.png 78w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bull-market-63x32.png 63w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bull-market-156x80.png 156w, https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/bull-market-264x135.png 264w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1013px) 100vw, 1013px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-8746\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh m\u016f\u017ee trvat i n\u011bkolik let.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh je \u010dasto ztoto\u017e\u0148ov\u00e1n s pozitivn\u00edm sentimentem. <strong>Pozitivn\u00ed sentiment<\/strong> obvykle znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ekonomika funguje dob\u0159e a \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina investor\u016f je ochotna investovat sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze do nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed. V obdob\u00ed b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trhu mnoho spole\u010dnost\u00ed expanduje, nab\u00edr\u00e1 nov\u00e9 zam\u011bstnance a investuje do rozvoje.<\/p>\n<p>Mnoho spole\u010dnost\u00ed b\u011bhem b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trhu dosahuje rekordn\u00edch zisk\u016f a ceny jejich akci\u00ed rostou do historick\u00fdch maxim. Je v\u0161ak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 z\u016fstat obez\u0159etn\u00fd, proto\u017ee p\u0159ehnan\u00fd optimismus m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k nadhodnocen\u00ed akci\u00ed. B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh je p\u0159irozenou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00edho cyklu. I kdy\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt euforick\u00fd, je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 zachovat si chladnou hlavu a nepodl\u00e9hat<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/co-je-fomo-fear-of-missing-out\/\"> FOMO (strachu z prome\u0161k\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti).<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>P\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti v dob\u011b r\u016fstu<\/h3>\n<p>B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed investor\u016fm mnoho p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 rizika p\u0159ehnan\u00e9ho optimismu. &#8222;Bu\u010fte chamtiv\u00ed, kdy\u017e ostatn\u00ed jsou opatrn\u00ed, a opatrn\u00ed, kdy\u017e ostatn\u00ed jsou chamtiv\u00ed,&#8220; \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Warren Buffett.<br \/>\nB\u011bhem b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho trhu m\u016f\u017eeme d\u011blat n\u011bkolik v\u011bc\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"my-list\">\n<li>Zachovat discipl\u00ednu a nepodl\u00e9hat p\u0159ehnan\u00e9mu optimismu<\/li>\n<li>Diverzifikovat portfolio a realizovat \u010d\u00e1st zisk\u016f<\/li>\n<li>Pokra\u010dovat v pravideln\u00e9m investov\u00e1n\u00ed (dollar-cost averaging)<\/li>\n<li>Zam\u011b\u0159it se na r\u016fstov\u00e9 akcie a cyklick\u00e9 sektory jako technologie, finance, pr\u016fmysl<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Historicky b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trhy trvaj\u00ed v pr\u016fm\u011bru 2 a\u017e 5 let.<\/strong> N\u011bkter\u00e9 jsou krat\u0161\u00ed, jin\u00e9 mohou p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat i d\u00e9le. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je p\u0159ipravit se na mo\u017enost korekce a m\u00edt p\u0159ipravenou strategii pro obdob\u00ed, kdy trend za\u010dne sl\u00e1bnout.<\/p>\n<h3>Z\u00e1v\u011br a shrnut\u00ed<\/h3>\n<p>B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed a medv\u011bd\u00ed trhy p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed cykly, kter\u00fdmi finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy pravideln\u011b proch\u00e1zej\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh charakterizuje obdob\u00ed r\u016fstu a optimismu, kdy ceny aktiv stabiln\u011b stoupaj\u00ed (v pr\u016fm\u011bru 2-5 let s r\u016fstem 50-200%), medv\u011bd\u00ed trh znamen\u00e1 obdob\u00ed pokles\u016f a pesimismu (typicky 9-18 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f s poklesy 20-40% i v\u00edce).<\/p>\n<p>Historie n\u00e1m nab\u00edz\u00ed n\u011bkolik v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f t\u011bchto cykl\u016f. Nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00ed medv\u011bd\u00ed trh p\u0159i\u0161el b\u011bhem Velk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krize (1929-1932) s poklesem o 89%. Naopak jeden z nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch b\u00fd\u010d\u00edch trh\u016f jsme za\u017eili po finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi 2008, kdy trhy rostly v\u00edce ne\u017e dek\u00e1du (2009-2020) s celkov\u00fdm r\u016fstem p\u0159es 400%.<\/p>\n<p>Pro rozpozn\u00e1n\u00ed typu trhu sledujeme jak technick\u00e9 indik\u00e1tory (trendy, klouzav\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry, objemy), tak fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed faktory (firemn\u00ed zisky, ekonomick\u00e1 data, sentiment investor\u016f). Pr\u00e1v\u011b kombinace t\u011bchto sign\u00e1l\u016f n\u00e1m pom\u00e1h\u00e1 l\u00e9pe pochopit, v jak\u00e9 f\u00e1zi se trh nach\u00e1z\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy se pohybuj\u00ed v cyklech jako na houpa\u010dce &#8211; obdob\u00ed r\u016fstu (b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trh) st\u0159\u00eddaj\u00ed obdob\u00ed pokles\u016f (medv\u011bd\u00ed trh). Pro tyto dva z\u00e1kladn\u00ed trendy se v\u017eily symboly b\u00fdka a medv\u011bda. Nen\u00ed to n\u00e1hoda &#8211; b\u00fdk p\u0159i \u00fatoku prudce vr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed rohy vzh\u016fru, co\u017e symbolizuje rostouc\u00ed ceny a optimismus na trz\u00edch. Naopak medv\u011bd \u00fato\u010d\u00ed tlapami shora dol\u016f, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4023,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"B\u00fd\u010d\u00ed a Medv\u011bd\u00ed trh - co p\u0159esn\u011b znamenaj\u00ed a jak je poznat?","_seopress_titles_desc":"Co je b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed a medv\u011bd\u00ed trh? Hranice mezi medv\u011bd\u00edmi a b\u00fd\u010d\u00edmi trhy a jak tyto trhy poznat? Jak dlouho trvaj\u00ed a jak je vyu\u017e\u00edt ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch.","_seopress_robots_index":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[194],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-akcie"],"modified_by":"Krpensk\u00fd Martin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4021"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4021\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4023"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}