{"id":4169,"date":"2022-10-12T13:10:36","date_gmt":"2022-10-12T11:10:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/?p=4169"},"modified":"2024-08-09T13:48:58","modified_gmt":"2024-08-09T11:48:58","slug":"volatilita","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/volatilita\/","title":{"rendered":"Co je to Volatilita?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Volatilita, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd prvek na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch<\/strong>, n\u00e1m poskytuje cenn\u00e9 informace o dynamice cen podkladov\u00fdch aktiv<\/strong>. Vysok\u00e1 volatilita nazna\u010duje, \u017ee cena akcie se prudce m\u011bn\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se pohybuje v \u0161irok\u00fdch cenov\u00fdch p\u00e1smech. Naopak, n\u00edzk\u00e1 volatilita ukazuje na stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed ceny, kter\u00e1 se dr\u017e\u00ed v \u00fazk\u00fdch p\u00e1smech.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno, volatilita je m\u011b\u0159ena jako standardn\u00ed odchylka od sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ceny akcie. Tato odchylka n\u00e1m poskytuje p\u0159edstavu o tom, jak\u00e9 rozsahy cen m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat v ur\u010dit\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed. Zvonovit\u00fd tvar grafu cenov\u00e9 volatility je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm konceptem. Jeho vrchol reprezentuje aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cenu akcie, zat\u00edmco \u0161\u00ed\u0159ka grafu, d\u00e1na standardn\u00ed odchylkou, ukazuje, jak daleko by se m\u011bla cena pohybovat s ur\u010ditou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed v dan\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad akcie s vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatilitou maj\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed graf, zat\u00edmco ty s ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed volatilitou maj\u00ed \u00fazk\u00fd graf. I kdy\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt matematick\u00e1 podstata slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, pro n\u00e1s je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pochopit, \u017ee tento tvar n\u00e1m pom\u00e1h\u00e1 odhadnout, jak\u00e1 rozp\u011bt\u00ed cen m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat v r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch horizontech.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Indik\u00e1tory volatility pro jej\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed<\/h2>\n

Jedn\u00edm z nej\u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f pro m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed volatility<\/strong> je standardn\u00ed odchylka cenov\u00fdch dat. Tato metoda vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1 rozptyl cenov\u00fdch pohyb\u016f od st\u0159edn\u00ed hodnoty a poskytuje kvantitativn\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed variability cenov\u00fdch zm\u011bn. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnota standardn\u00ed odchylky indikuje v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed volatilitu, zat\u00edmco ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed hodnota ukazuje na men\u0161\u00ed fluktuace. Volatilita obecn\u011b znamen\u00e1 kol\u00edsavost trhu. Se stoupaj\u00edc\u00ed volatilitou roste i cenov\u00e9 rozp\u011bt\u00ed, ve kter\u00e9m se trh pohybuje.<\/p>\n

Indik\u00e1tory volatility:\u00a0<\/strong>Volatiln\u00ed trhy mohou p\u0159in\u00e9st b\u011bhem kr\u00e1tk\u00e9ho \u010dasu v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zisky, proto\u017ee ud\u011blaj\u00ed velk\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 pohyby. Indik\u00e1tory, kter\u00e9 z n\u00ed matematicky vych\u00e1zej\u00ed se naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed indik\u00e1tory volatility. Jejich princip spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 kol\u00edsavosti (rychlosti zm\u011bny) trhu s p\u0159edchoz\u00edm v\u00fdvojem a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nar\u016fstaj\u00edc\u00ed nerovnov\u00e1hy n\u00e1m d\u00e1vaj\u00ed sign\u00e1l k mo\u017en\u00e9mu obratu v trendu.<\/p>\n

Mezi nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00ed indik\u00e1tory volatility na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch pat\u0159\u00ed n\u011bkolik d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 investo\u0159i pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed k m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed a anal\u00fdze fluktuace cen aktiv. Dva z t\u011bchto kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch indik\u00e1tor\u016f jsou Bolinger Bands (BB) a Average True Range (ATR).<\/p>\n

Bolinger bands (BB)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Bolinger Bands jsou grafick\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem, kter\u00fd se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 z t\u0159\u00ed \u010dar um\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch nad a pod cenov\u00fdm grafem. Tyto p\u00e1sy jsou odvozeny z pohybliv\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011bru cen a standardn\u00ed odchylky. BB jsou \u010dasto pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny k identifikaci \u00farovn\u00ed podpory a odporu a k anal\u00fdze volatility cenov\u00fdch pohyb\u016f. Kdy\u017e se p\u00e1sy roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed, nazna\u010duje to zv\u00fd\u0161enou volatilitu, zat\u00edmco stahov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u00e1s\u016f nazna\u010duje sn\u00ed\u017eenou volatilitu.<\/p>\n

Average True Range (ATR)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Average True Range (ATR) je indik\u00e1tor, kter\u00fd m\u011b\u0159\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd rozsah cenov\u00fdch pohyb\u016f v dan\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed. ATR je \u010dasto pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n k ur\u010den\u00ed m\u00edry volatility trhu a k identifikaci potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00farovn\u00ed podpory a odporu. Vysok\u00e1 hodnota ATR ukazuje na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rozsah cenov\u00fdch pohyb\u016f a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatilitu, zat\u00edmco n\u00edzk\u00e1 hodnota ATR nazna\u010duje men\u0161\u00ed fluktuace cen.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b t\u011bchto technick\u00fdch indik\u00e1tor\u016f m\u016f\u017eeme m\u011b\u0159it volatilitu i pomoc\u00ed deriv\u00e1t\u016f, jako jsou opce. Cena opce se odvozuje z o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 budouc\u00ed volatility podkladov\u00e9ho aktiva. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cena opce nazna\u010duje vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1vanou volatilitu a naopak.<\/p>\n

Typy volatility<\/h2>\n

Volatilita, jako\u017eto kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd prvek na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch, hraje nezastupitelnou roli p\u0159i formov\u00e1n\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00edch strategi\u00ed a rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f. Tento koncept odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed m\u00edru fluktuace cen aktiv a je st\u011b\u017eejn\u00edm faktorem pro porozum\u011bn\u00ed tr\u017en\u00edm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m. P\u0159i zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed volatility se \u010dasto setk\u00e1v\u00e1me s jej\u00edmi r\u016fzn\u00fdmi typy, kter\u00e9 poskytuj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 \u00fahly pohledu na trh.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Historick\u00e1 volatilita<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Poskytuje pohled do minulosti a ukazuje, jak\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b volatility m\u011blo podkladov\u00e9 aktivum v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu. Tato informace je cenn\u00e1 pro investory, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed porozum\u011bt tomu, jak se cena aktiv vyv\u00edjela v minulosti a jak\u00e9 fluktuace mohou o\u010dek\u00e1vat v budoucnosti. Anal\u00fdza historick\u00e9 volatility umo\u017e\u0148uje posoudit, jak\u00e1 rizika jsou spojen\u00e1 s dan\u00fdm aktivem a jak se m\u016f\u017ee chovat v r\u016fzn\u00fdch situac\u00edch na trhu.<\/p>\n

Implicitn\u00ed volatilita<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Implicitn\u00ed volatilita, na druhou stranu, n\u00e1m poskytuje informace o tr\u017en\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edch ohledn\u011b budouc\u00ed volatility aktiv. Jedn\u00e1 se o odhady investitor\u016f a obchodn\u00edk\u016f, jak moc se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se cena aktiv bude v budoucnu pohybovat. Implicitn\u00ed volatilita je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na pro obchodn\u00edky s opcemi, proto\u017ee ovliv\u0148uje cenu opc\u00ed na trhu. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed implicitn\u00ed volatilita znamen\u00e1 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 riziko a tedy i vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cenu opc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Volatilita na Forexu<\/h2>\n

P\u0159i pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed a v\u00fdb\u011bru vlastn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed strategie na Forexu je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 zohlednit volatilitu trhu, kter\u00e1 pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1stroje na trhu Forex, kter\u00fd je otev\u0159en\u00fd celosv\u011btov\u011b 24 hodin denn\u011b, 5 dn\u00ed v t\u00fddnu, poskytuje obchodn\u00edk\u016fm jedine\u010dn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti otev\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed pozic jak na kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9, tak dlouhodob\u00e9 obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Forexov\u00fd trh se \u0159\u00edd\u00ed Greenwichsk\u00fdm \u010dasem, proto\u017ee Lond\u00fdn je domovem nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho devizov\u00e9ho trhu na sv\u011bt\u011b<\/strong>. P\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed se m\u00edstn\u00edmu \u010dasu zem\u011b, se kterou obchodujete, m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k lep\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledk\u016fm. Aktivita na Forexov\u00e9m trhu v jednotliv\u00fdch zem\u00edch z\u00e1vis\u00ed na m\u00edstn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch hodin\u00e1ch podle \u010dasov\u00fdch p\u00e1sem. Tento aspekt trhu by m\u011bl b\u00fdt p\u0159i obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e zohledn\u011bn.<\/p>\n

Forex trh je rozd\u011blen na v\u00edce \u010dasov\u00fdch p\u00e1sem<\/h3>\n

Volatilita na Forexu se projevuje u ka\u017ed\u00e9ho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho p\u00e1ru, kdy doch\u00e1z\u00ed k nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm vzestup\u016fm a pokles\u016fm cen, kter\u00e9 se neust\u00e1le m\u011bn\u00ed. K t\u011bmto v\u00fdkyv\u016fm doch\u00e1z\u00ed zejm\u00e9na b\u011bhem ur\u010dit\u00fdch denn\u00edch hodin<\/strong>, kdy je dan\u00e1 zem\u011b nejaktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a prob\u00edhaj\u00ed zde obchodn\u00ed transakce. D\u016fvodem je to, \u017ee b\u011bhem dne se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 mnoho ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, na kter\u00e9 Forexov\u00fd trh adekv\u00e1tn\u011b reaguje. Obchodn\u00edci by m\u011bli tyto zm\u011bny sledovat a zahrnout je do sv\u00fdch ka\u017edodenn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch strategi\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad lond\u00fdnsk\u00e1, \u010dasto naz\u00fdvan\u00e1 tak\u00e9 evropsk\u00e1, obchodn\u00ed seance je pova\u017eov\u00e1na za nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed Forexov\u00fd trh a vykazuje vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatilitu ne\u017e jak\u00e1koli jin\u00e1 seance na devizov\u00e9m trhu. V\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159icet procent denn\u00edho obratu Forexu prob\u00edh\u00e1 b\u011bhem lond\u00fdnsk\u00e9 seance. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 zm\u011bna cen u v\u0161ech m\u011bnov\u00fdch p\u00e1r\u016f b\u011bhem t\u00e9to seance \u010din\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 80 pip\u016f. Pokud se nau\u010d\u00edme spr\u00e1vn\u011b ch\u00e1pat principy volatility Forexu pro v\u0161echny obchodovan\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00e9 p\u00e1ry, jako jsou USD\/CAD nebo GBP\/USD, m\u016f\u017eeme z t\u011bchto znalost\u00ed z\u00edskat v\u00fdhody a nastavit si \u00farovn\u011b rizika, stop-lossy a dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1stroje.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h3>\n

Volatilita je nepostradateln\u00fdm prvkem finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed vliv na investi\u010dn\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed a strategie. Jej\u00ed anal\u00fdza a porozum\u011bn\u00ed jsou kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 pro \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizik. P\u0159esto\u017ee se m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t slo\u017eit\u00e1, existuj\u00ed dva hlavn\u00ed typy volatility, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1m pom\u00e1haj\u00ed l\u00e9pe pochopit chov\u00e1n\u00ed trhu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Volatilita, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd prvek na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch, n\u00e1m poskytuje cenn\u00e9 informace o dynamice cen podkladov\u00fdch aktiv. Vysok\u00e1 volatilita nazna\u010duje, \u017ee cena akcie se prudce m\u011bn\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se pohybuje v \u0161irok\u00fdch cenov\u00fdch p\u00e1smech. Naopak, n\u00edzk\u00e1 volatilita ukazuje na stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed ceny, kter\u00e1 se dr\u017e\u00ed v \u00fazk\u00fdch p\u00e1smech. P\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno, volatilita je m\u011b\u0159ena jako standardn\u00ed odchylka od sou\u010dasn\u00e9 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4172,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"Co je to Volatilita - jak ji vyu\u017e\u00edt p\u0159i obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed","_seopress_titles_desc":"Co je volatilita trhu a jak ovliv\u0148uje investice? Volatilita ur\u010duje rozp\u011bt\u00ed ceny aktiv. Na trhu ur\u010dujeme vysokou a n\u00edzkou volatility.","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[194,196,214],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-akcie","category-forex","category-komodity"],"modified_by":"Krpensk\u00fd Martin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4169"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4169\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4172"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}