{"id":6578,"date":"2023-11-29T20:51:59","date_gmt":"2023-11-29T19:51:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/?p=6578"},"modified":"2024-02-19T22:57:09","modified_gmt":"2024-02-19T21:57:09","slug":"co-je-to-cerna-labut-maji-se-investori-bat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/co-je-to-cerna-labut-maji-se-investori-bat\/","title":{"rendered":"Co je to \u010cern\u00e1 labu\u0165 na trz\u00edch: maj\u00ed se investo\u0159i b\u00e1t?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pojem „\u010dern\u00e1 labu\u0165“, kter\u00fd poprv\u00e9 p\u0159edstavil Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/strong> ve sv\u00e9 knize „The Black Swan<\/strong>„, ji\u017e dnes pat\u0159\u00ed mezi z\u00e1kladn\u00ed koncepty v oblasti ekonomie, financ\u00ed a teorie rizik.<\/p>\n

Talebova pr\u00e1ce p\u0159inesla nov\u00fd pohled na nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed dopad na na\u0161e \u017eivoty a trhy. V tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku se podrobn\u011bji zam\u011b\u0159\u00edme na tento koncept a jeho d\u016fle\u017eitost pro sou\u010dasn\u00e9 pochopen\u00ed sv\u011bta.<\/p>\n

Definice \u010cern\u00e9 Labut\u011b<\/h2>\n

\u010cern\u00e1 labu\u0165 je ud\u00e1lost, kter\u00e1 se vymyk\u00e1 b\u011b\u017en\u00fdm o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm a dosavadn\u00edm zku\u0161enostem na finan\u010dn\u00edm trhu. Tyto ud\u00e1losti jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b vz\u00e1cn\u00e9, nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 a maj\u00ed obrovsk\u00fd dopad na akcie, komodity, a dal\u0161\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy. Zp\u011btn\u011b jsou \u010dasto interpretov\u00e1ny jako p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9, co\u017e je klamn\u00fd dojem. Tento koncept upozor\u0148uje na to, \u017ee sv\u011bt je mnohem v\u00edce neline\u00e1rn\u00ed, ne\u017e jsme ochotni p\u0159ipustit.<\/p>\n

Dva Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed Rysy \u010cern\u00e9 Labut\u011b:<\/em><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Nep\u0159edstavitelnost<\/strong>: \u010cern\u00e1 labu\u0165 le\u017e\u00ed mimo r\u00e1mec sou\u010dasn\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed a p\u0159edstav. Je to n\u011bco, co si v r\u00e1mci na\u0161ich dosavadn\u00edch zku\u0161enost\u00ed nedok\u00e1\u017eeme ani p\u0159edstavit.<\/li>\n
  2. Obrovsk\u00fd Dopad<\/strong>: Ka\u017ed\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost typu \u010dern\u00e1 labu\u0165 m\u00e1 zna\u010dn\u00fd dopad na spole\u010dnost, ekonomiku, politiku nebo osobn\u00ed \u017eivoty. Tento dopad je \u010dasto glob\u00e1ln\u00ed a m\u00e1 dlouhodob\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    V\u00fdznam Pro Investice:<\/em><\/p>\n

    V investi\u010dn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b je koncept \u010dern\u00e9 labut\u011b kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd pro pochopen\u00ed rizik. Tradi\u010dn\u00ed modely, jako je Gaussova k\u0159ivka, \u010dasto nepo\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s extr\u00e9mn\u00edmi ud\u00e1lostmi, kter\u00e9 se od normy v\u00fdrazn\u011b odchyluj\u00ed. V okam\u017eiku, kdy n\u011bkdo argumentuje pouze na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto model\u016f, je t\u0159eba b\u00fdt opatrn\u00fd. \u010cern\u00e9 labut\u011b n\u00e1m p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed, \u017ee trhy a sv\u011bt jsou mnohem nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e si mysl\u00edme.<\/p>\n

    P\u0159\u00edklady \u010cern\u00e9 labut\u011b na trz\u00edch:<\/em><\/p>\n

    Jedn\u00edm z nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f konceptu \u010dern\u00e9 labut\u011b, jak jej definoval Nassim Nicholas Taleb, je glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed krize v roce 2008<\/strong>. Tato ud\u00e1lost naprosto p\u0159ekvapila ekonomy, investory i vl\u00e1dy a m\u011bla obrovsk\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady, kter\u00e9 rezonovaly po cel\u00e9 dek\u00e1d\u011b. Krize m\u011bla syst\u00e9mov\u00fd dopad na celou finan\u010dn\u00ed strukturu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky. Vedla k p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed pravidel a regulac\u00ed v bankovnictv\u00ed a investi\u010dn\u00edch prax\u00edch.<\/p>\n

    Tato krize ilustruje d\u016fle\u017eitost pochopen\u00ed konceptu \u010dern\u00e9 labut\u011b a pot\u0159ebu p\u0159ipravit se na ne\u010dekan\u00e9 a zd\u00e1nliv\u011b nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti, kter\u00e9 mohou radik\u00e1ln\u011b zm\u011bnit stav sv\u011bta, v n\u011bm\u017e \u017eijeme.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \u00datok na Pearl Harbor (7. prosince 1941)<\/strong>: Po \u00fatoku S&P 500 reagovalo poklesem o -6,87%, s poklesem o -2,90% po 30 dnech a -12,02% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    2. Kub\u00e1nsk\u00e1 raketov\u00e1 krize (10\/1962)<\/strong>: S&P 500 p\u016fvodn\u011b kleslo o -3,78%, pot\u00e9 vzrostlo o 7,61% po 30 dnech a o 17,16% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    3. Atent\u00e1t na JFK (22. listopadu 1963)<\/strong>: Inici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce byl pokles o -2,81%, n\u00e1sledovan\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fstem o 3,06% po 30 dnech a n\u00e1r\u016fstem o 8,28% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    4. USA bombarduj\u00ed Kambod\u017eu (30. dubna 1970)<\/strong>: Inici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce byla -15,30%, -6,43% po 30 dnech a -4,94% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    5. Arabsk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 embargo (10\/1973)<\/strong>: Inici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce trhu byl pokles o -16,23%, n\u00e1sledovan\u00fd zm\u011bnou o -8,45% po 30 dnech a -13,04% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    6. SSSR invaze do Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu (24. prosince 1979)<\/strong>: Inici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce byla -2,27%, s poklesem o -5,37% po 30 dnech a -7,78% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    7. USA bombarduj\u00ed Libyi (15. dubna 1986)<\/strong>: S&P 500 uk\u00e1zalo inici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakci -2,95%, s n\u00e1r\u016fstem o 1,39% po 30 dnech a n\u00e1r\u016fstem o 0,78% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    8. USA invaze do Panamy (20. prosince 1989)<\/strong>: Inici\u00e1ln\u011b do\u0161lo k reakci -2,06%, zm\u011bn\u011b o -3,73% po 30 dnech a -3,43% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    9. V\u00e1lka v Z\u00e1livu (1\/1994)<\/strong>: Inici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce byla -4,16%, s n\u00e1r\u016fstem o 0,09% po 30 dnech a 12,10% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    10. Bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed Sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodn\u00edho centra (2\/1993)<\/strong>: Inici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce byla zm\u011bna o -0,31%, n\u00e1sledovan\u00e1 n\u00e1r\u016fstem o 1,67% po 30 dnech a 2,04% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    11. Teroristick\u00e9 \u00fatoky 11. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed (9\/2001)<\/strong>: Inici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce byla -11,60%, s zm\u011bnou o 0,45% po 30 dnech a n\u00e1r\u016fstem o 4,34% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n
    12. Invaze USA do Ir\u00e1ku (b\u0159ezen 2003)<\/strong>: S&P 500 m\u011blo inici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakci 2,49%, s zm\u011bnou o 2,06% po 30 dnech a n\u00e1r\u016fstem o 15,57% po 90 dnech.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Toto shrnut\u00ed zachycuje kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 \u00fadaje z obrazu t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se dopadu geopolitick\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed na tr\u017en\u00ed indexy. Tyto ud\u00e1losti jsou \u010dasto pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za „\u010cern\u00e9 labut\u011b“ kv\u016fli jejich nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti a v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu dopadu.<\/p>\n

      Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h3>\n

      Pojem \u010dern\u00e1 labu\u0165 od N.T. Taleba otev\u0159el novou kapitolu v na\u0161em ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed ne\u010dekan\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed a jejich dopadu na sv\u011bt. A\u010dkoliv jsou tyto ud\u00e1losti vz\u00e1cn\u00e9, maj\u00ed obrovsk\u00fd dopad, a proto by m\u011bly b\u00fdt v\u017edy zohledn\u011bny p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed a pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed do budoucna, a\u0165 u\u017e v osobn\u00edm \u017eivot\u011b, ve sv\u011bt\u011b financ\u00ed, nebo v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm spole\u010densk\u00e9m kontextu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Pojem „\u010dern\u00e1 labu\u0165“, kter\u00fd poprv\u00e9 p\u0159edstavil Nassim Nicholas Taleb ve sv\u00e9 knize „The Black Swan„, ji\u017e dnes pat\u0159\u00ed mezi z\u00e1kladn\u00ed koncepty v oblasti ekonomie, financ\u00ed a teorie rizik. Talebova pr\u00e1ce p\u0159inesla nov\u00fd pohled na nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed dopad na na\u0161e \u017eivoty a trhy. V tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku se podrobn\u011bji zam\u011b\u0159\u00edme na tento koncept a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6590,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"\u010cern\u00e1 Labu\u0165 a jej\u00ed vliv na akcie a finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy a burzy. M\u011bli by se ji investo\u0159i b\u00e1t? Pohled na definici a d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 aspekty \u010dern\u00e9 labut\u011b,","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[194],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-akcie"],"modified_by":"Krpensk\u00fd Martin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6578"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6578\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}