{"id":7868,"date":"2024-07-29T17:10:21","date_gmt":"2024-07-29T15:10:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/?p=7868"},"modified":"2024-07-29T17:13:05","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T15:13:05","slug":"3-mozne-scenare-vyvoje-na-akciovem-trhu-do-konce-roku-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/3-mozne-scenare-vyvoje-na-akciovem-trhu-do-konce-roku-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"3 mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje na akciov\u00e9m trhu do konce roku 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

B\u011bhem posledn\u00edch dvou t\u00fddn\u016f do\u0161lo k v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu poklesu akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f, zejm\u00e9na kv\u016fli v\u00fdprodej\u016fm tzv. „magnificent seven“<\/strong> (skupiny sedmi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed). Nasdaq zaznamenal pokles p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 10 % od historick\u00fdch maxim a index S&P 500 se sn\u00ed\u017eil o 4 %<\/strong>. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b jsme v\u0161ak byli sv\u011bdky r\u016fstu men\u0161\u00edch firem (Russel 2000) a sektor\u016f mimo technologii. Jak\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e se mohou do konce roku 2024 odehr\u00e1t na akciov\u00e9m trhu?<\/p>\n

1. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159: Rotace sektor\u016f<\/h2>\n

V posledn\u00edch letech za\u017eily technologick\u00e9 akcie exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nezastaviteln\u00fd r\u016fst, kter\u00fd posunul trhy, jako je S&P 500, na P\/E hodnotu 29x ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s pr\u016fm\u011brem 16x. Spole\u010dnosti jako Microsoft a Apple maj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnotu ne\u017e 2000 spole\u010dnost\u00ed v indexu Russell 2000.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc byly st\u0159edn\u011b velk\u00e9 a mal\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti a sektory mimo technologii ocen\u011bny na extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 hodnoty. V posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech jsme proto zaznamenali finan\u010dn\u00ed odliv z velk\u00fdch technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed do mal\u00fdch<\/strong> a v\u00edce na \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby citliv\u00fdch sektor\u016f (nemovitosti, utility, zdravotnictv\u00ed)<\/strong>, co\u017e bylo podpo\u0159eno p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkovou sez\u00f3nou.<\/p>\n

Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 byly v\u00fdsledky spole\u010dnosti Alphabet<\/a>, kter\u00e1 vyk\u00e1zala mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo. V\u00fddaje v tomto \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed dos\u00e1hly 13,2 miliardy dolar\u016f, co\u017e je n\u00e1r\u016fst oproti 12 miliard\u00e1m dolar\u016f v b\u0159eznu 2024 a m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 7 miliard\u00e1m dolar\u016f v \u010dervnu 2023. Velkou ot\u00e1zkou pro investory z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, kdy a jak\u00fd bude n\u00e1vrat z t\u011bchto v\u00fddaj\u016f na um\u011blou inteligenci.<\/p>\n

Tato ot\u00e1zka bude m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00fd dopad a m\u016f\u017ee vyvolat je\u0161t\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed reakce u v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 budou prezentovat sv\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech.<\/p>\n

2. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159: Pouze korekce<\/h2>\n

Druh\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kdy jde pouze o korekci, \u00fazce souvis\u00ed s v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bnou rotac\u00ed sektor\u016f. Tento odliv kapit\u00e1lu z velk\u00fdch technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed do jin\u00fdch sektor\u016f by mohl pokra\u010dovat, co\u017e by sn\u00ed\u017eilo p\u0159ebytek a p\u0159ivedlo zp\u011bt na povrch n\u011bkter\u00e9 podhodnocen\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. Pokud analyzujeme Nasdaq<\/a> z technick\u00e9ho hlediska, nach\u00e1z\u00edme se pouze na 50 \u00farovni Fibonacciho retracementu b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho impulsu, kter\u00fd za\u010dal 22. dubna 2024. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee je st\u00e1le prostor pro pokles a\u017e na \u00farove\u0148 61,8 (-3 %) nebo 78,6 (-5 %, co\u017e je velmi bl\u00edzko k 200-denn\u00edmu exponenci\u00e1ln\u00edmu pr\u016fm\u011bru).<\/p>\n

3. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159: Za\u010d\u00e1tek siln\u00e9 korekce<\/h2>\n

Je st\u00e1le p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 brzy na to, abychom pochopili, zda jsme na za\u010d\u00e1tku mo\u017en\u00e9 siln\u00e9 korekce. Jist\u00e9 je, \u017ee se nach\u00e1z\u00edme v p\u0159echodn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed, kdy centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka bude muset naj\u00edt spr\u00e1vn\u00fd \u010das pro sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, ne\u017e bude p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b. Jak v\u0161ak v\u00edme, centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky maj\u00ed \u010dasto \u0161patn\u00e9 na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden se bude konat zased\u00e1n\u00ed FOMC a trhy zohled\u0148uj\u00ed mo\u017enost, \u017ee FED udr\u017e\u00ed stejnou \u00farove\u0148 sazeb a pot\u00e9 je sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed na zased\u00e1n\u00ed v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed. Ekonomick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky v USA v\u0161ak nejsou tak r\u016f\u017eov\u00e9, aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 sazby udr\u017eet na t\u00e9to \u00farovni.<\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 data zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e1 tento t\u00fdden tak\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed zpomalen\u00ed. Realitn\u00ed sektor zaznamenal pokles prodeje st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch dom\u016f o 5,4 % a pokles prodeje nov\u00fdch dom\u016f o 0,6 % (z p\u016fvodn\u00ed hodnoty -15 %). Tak\u00e9 index n\u00e1kupn\u00edch mana\u017eer\u016f ve v\u00fdrob\u011b (PMI<\/a>) je na \u00farovni 49,5, co\u017e je pod hranic\u00ed 50, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edstavuje ekonomickou kontrakci. Objedn\u00e1vky na zbo\u017e\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 spot\u0159eby tak\u00e9 klesly o 6,6 % mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b se sektory slu\u017eeb st\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed dob\u0159e, s indexem PMI slu\u017eeb na \u00farovni 56.<\/p>\n

Pokud by FED z n\u011bjak\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu p\u0159istoupil k p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb ji\u017e p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden, mohlo by to trhy p\u0159ekvapit a potvrdit, \u017ee situace nen\u00ed tak optim\u00e1ln\u00ed, jak bylo uvedeno na posledn\u00edch zased\u00e1n\u00edch. Nach\u00e1z\u00edme se tedy v p\u0159echodn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi, kdy se mohou tr\u017en\u00ed pozice rychle a rozhodn\u011b m\u011bnit, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee t\u00fddn\u011b vys\u00edlat protich\u016fdn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly.<\/p>\n

Co se stane v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch?<\/h2>\n

Jak se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edme ke konci roku 2024, budoucnost akciov\u00e9ho trhu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159edm\u011btem intenzivn\u00edch spekulac\u00ed a anal\u00fdz. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch dat a trend\u016f m\u016f\u017eeme nast\u00ednit t\u0159i mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 by se mohly odehr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

\u00dapravy bilance FEDu:<\/strong> Bilance Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se bude zmen\u0161ovat, i kdy\u017e pomalej\u0161\u00edm tempem. Tato zm\u011bna by mohla m\u00edt dopad na trh, ale pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude dramatick\u00e1. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee likvidita na trhu se bude postupn\u011b zvy\u0161ovat.<\/p>\n

Stav \u00fa\u010dtu ministerstva financ\u00ed:<\/strong> Sou\u010dasn\u00fd \u00fa\u010det ministerstva financ\u00ed by mohl klesat, proto\u017ee se nezd\u00e1, \u017ee by byl z\u00e1jem sni\u017eovat rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit. Rekordn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst dan\u00ed by mohl v\u00e9st k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm v\u00fddaj\u016fm, a t\u00edm p\u00e1dem ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u00e9to hodnoty.<\/p>\n

Pokles rezervn\u00edch repo operac\u00ed:<\/strong> Rezervn\u00ed repo operace by mohly klesat. Kv\u016fli sez\u00f3nnosti maj\u00ed tendenci se na za\u010d\u00e1tku \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed pohybovat t\u00edmto sm\u011brem. Nav\u00edc vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f od\u010derp\u00e1 prost\u0159edky z rezervn\u00edho repo, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se tato likvidita uvoln\u00ed na trh.<\/p>\n

Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 nazna\u010duje mo\u017enost v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed likvidity v \u010dervenci, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st trhy a kryptom\u011bny k nov\u00fdm maxim\u016fm. Pokud nedojde k velk\u00fdm p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm z hlediska zisk\u016f nebo \u010dern\u00e9 labut\u011b, trh bude moci po\u010d\u00edtat s novou likviditou, a proto je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee dojde k v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm zvrat\u016fm v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

B\u011bhem posledn\u00edch dvou t\u00fddn\u016f do\u0161lo k v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu poklesu akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f, zejm\u00e9na kv\u016fli v\u00fdprodej\u016fm tzv. „magnificent seven“ (skupiny sedmi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed). Nasdaq zaznamenal pokles p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 10 % od historick\u00fdch maxim a index S&P 500 se sn\u00ed\u017eil o 4 %. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b jsme v\u0161ak byli sv\u011bdky r\u016fstu men\u0161\u00edch firem (Russel 2000) a sektor\u016f mimo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7869,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[194],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-akcie"],"modified_by":"Krpensk\u00fd Martin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7868"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7868\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}