{"id":7872,"date":"2024-07-29T17:21:55","date_gmt":"2024-07-29T15:21:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/?p=7872"},"modified":"2025-01-11T15:02:45","modified_gmt":"2025-01-11T14:02:45","slug":"co-je-to-obdobi-stagflace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/co-je-to-obdobi-stagflace\/","title":{"rendered":"Co je to obdob\u00ed Stagflace?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Stagflace je slo\u017eit\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd jev, kter\u00fd se vyzna\u010duje sou\u010dasn\u00fdm v\u00fdskytem stagnace a inflace. Tento fenom\u00e9n p\u0159edstavuje zna\u010dnou v\u00fdzvu pro tv\u016frce politik, proto\u017ee tradi\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 k boji proti inflaci mohou zhor\u0161it stagnaci a naopak, co\u017e vede k potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 patov\u00e9 situaci.<\/p>\n

Stagflace popisuje situaci, kdy se v ekonomice sou\u010dasn\u011b vyskytuj\u00ed vysok\u00e1 inflace a vysok\u00e1 m\u00edra nezam\u011bstnanosti. Toto je neobvykl\u00fd a obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b \u0159e\u0161iteln\u00fd stav, proto\u017ee typicky opat\u0159en\u00ed na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed inflace (jako je zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb) mohou zv\u00fd\u0161it nezam\u011bstnanost, zat\u00edmco opat\u0159en\u00ed na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanosti (jako je sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb) mohou zvy\u0161ovat inflaci.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Infografika vysv\u011btluj\u00edc\u00ed koncept stagflace<\/p><\/div>\n

Historick\u00fd kontext stagflace<\/h2>\n

Historicky byla stagflace pova\u017eov\u00e1na za nepravd\u011bpodobnou, proto\u017ee tradi\u010dn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 teorie nazna\u010dovaly, \u017ee inflace a nezam\u011bstnanost jsou navz\u00e1jem obr\u00e1cen\u011b spojen\u00e9, co\u017e je koncept zn\u00e1m\u00fd jako Phillipsova k\u0159ivka.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b zku\u0161enosti ze 70. let, zejm\u00e9na ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, tuto p\u0159edstavu zpochybnily. B\u011bhem tohoto obdob\u00ed byla glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika zasa\u017eena ropn\u00fdmi \u0161oky kv\u016fli embargu OPEC, co\u017e vedlo k prudk\u00e9mu r\u016fstu cen energie. Tyto vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily do cel\u00e9 ekonomiky a vedly k rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9mu zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed cen. Sou\u010dasn\u011b stagnoval ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst a m\u00edra nezam\u011bstnanosti stoupala, co\u017e p\u0159edstavovalo jasn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad stagflace.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edklad: Situace v Evrop\u011b a USA<\/h2>\n

V Evrop\u011b<\/strong> inflace tento m\u011bs\u00edc op\u011bt dos\u00e1hla 2,4 % a sna\u017e\u00ed se dos\u00e1hnout c\u00edlov\u00fdch 2 %. To m\u016f\u017ee zt\u00ed\u017eit sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v \u010dervnu.<\/p>\n

Ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech<\/strong> byl index spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen (CPI) v souladu s o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm na \u00farovni 3,4 %. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b jsou tato data pozitivn\u00ed, proto\u017ee umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezerv\u011b (Fed) oddechnout si, ale na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee cesta k dosa\u017een\u00ed 2% c\u00edle je st\u00e1le dlouh\u00e1 a obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1. Zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pozoruhodn\u00e1 jsou data o indexu cen v\u00fdrobc\u016f (PPI), kter\u00e1 p\u0159ekro\u010dila o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed (0,5 % oproti o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm 0,3 %). Jak je zn\u00e1mo, pokud ceny v\u00fdrobc\u016f rostou, tyto zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159enesou na spot\u0159ebitele. Importn\u00ed ceny rovn\u011b\u017e zaznamenaly v\u00fdznamn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst o 0,9 % oproti o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm 0,2 %, co\u017e nazna\u010duje potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 data zahrnuj\u00ed maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby (MoM) 0,0 % oproti o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm 0,4 %, pr\u016fmyslovou v\u00fdrobu 0,0 % oproti 0,1 %, \u017e\u00e1dosti o podporu v nezam\u011bstnanosti a pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dosti o podporu v nezam\u011bstnanosti, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ekro\u010dily o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Vid\u011bli jsme tak\u00e9 pokles odhad\u016f r\u016fstu HDP Atlanta Fed NOW z 3,8 % na 3,6 %.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00fd p\u0159echod k stagflaci<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tyto \u00fadaje nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee dosa\u017een\u00ed 2% infla\u010dn\u00edho c\u00edle m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9. Nav\u00edc rostouc\u00ed ceny v\u00fdrobc\u016f, expanzivn\u00ed fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politika a m\u011bkk\u00fd postoj Fedu by mohly otev\u0159\u00edt dve\u0159e k mo\u017en\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen surovin by tak\u00e9 mohlo p\u0159isp\u011bt k dal\u0161\u00edmu r\u016fstu inflace.<\/p>\n

Z hlediska ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity se za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed projevovat prvn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edznaky ve form\u011b maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eeb, pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby a trhu pr\u00e1ce. Mohli bychom se tak p\u0159esunout z re\u017eimu reflace v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed do re\u017eimu stagflace ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h3>\n

Stagflace je slo\u017eit\u00fd a n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fd jev, kter\u00fd vy\u017eaduje pe\u010dliv\u00e9 a vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstupy k politice. P\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 sledovat v\u00fdvoj inflace a ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity, aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u010das rozpoznat a reagovat na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 riziko stagflace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stagflace je slo\u017eit\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd jev, kter\u00fd se vyzna\u010duje sou\u010dasn\u00fdm v\u00fdskytem stagnace a inflace. Tento fenom\u00e9n p\u0159edstavuje zna\u010dnou v\u00fdzvu pro tv\u016frce politik, proto\u017ee tradi\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 k boji proti inflaci mohou zhor\u0161it stagnaci a naopak, co\u017e vede k potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 patov\u00e9 situaci. Stagflace popisuje situaci, kdy se v ekonomice sou\u010dasn\u011b vyskytuj\u00ed vysok\u00e1 inflace a vysok\u00e1 m\u00edra […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7873,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[275],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamentalni-ukazatele"],"modified_by":"Krpensk\u00fd Martin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7872\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexsrovnavac.cz\/mag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}