Tin price

Electronics solder accounts for about 50% of global tin consumption, so tin prices track the semiconductor cycle unusually closely. The EU RoHS Directive made lead-free solder mandatory: the former Sn63/Pb37 tin-lead alloy was replaced by the Sn-Ag-Cu (SAC) family — the most common SAC305 formulation contains 96.5% tin, 3% silver and 0.5% copper. Because lead-free alternatives use a higher tin content, the regulatory shift structurally increased the industry’s tin intensity. A smartphone PCB assembly uses about 1–2 g of tin, a PC motherboard 5–10 g, and server boards considerably more.

Supply is highly concentrated. Global mine production is around 290,000 tonnes, with a large share coming from three countries. China produces about 70 kt, mainly in Yunnan and Guangxi; Indonesia about 75 kt, led by state-owned PT Timah on Bangka and Belitung; Myanmar about 30 kt, almost entirely from artisanal mines in Wa State; and Peru about 25 kt, led by Minsur’s San Rafael mine. Brazil, Bolivia and the Democratic Republic of Congo follow. The three largest producers together account for about 60% of global output and include countries where export rules, concession changes or security conditions regularly affect supply.

The third pillar is tinplate, tin-coated steel sheet used for food and paint cans. This segment is structurally stable — canned food demand is relatively insulated from the economic cycle — and offsets some of the volatility in electronics. Other drivers include chemical uses such as PVC stabilisers, catalysts and fungicides; brass and bronze alloys, including the classic 88% copper — 12% tin bronze used in industrial fittings; and LME warehouse stock levels. Prices are also affected by fluctuations in output from Myanmar’s Man Maw mine and Indonesia’s periodic export restrictions aimed at curbing black- and grey-market trade.