Commodity prices

The energy category covers the raw materials that power the global economy: Brent and WTI crude oil, natural gas (Henry Hub in the US, TTF in Europe), coal, uranium concentrate, and refined products — gasoline, gasoil, heating oil, propane, methanol and naphtha derivatives. These prices feed directly into inflation, transport costs and electricity bills. The market is driven by OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, the US EIA weekly inventory report and weather anomalies.

Precious metals are traditional safe-haven assets that tend to perform well in uncertain periods, during high inflation and when the dollar is weak. Gold and silver act as a hedge for investors, while platinum, palladium and rhodium are critical inputs to automotive catalytic converters. Prices are shaped by central-bank purchases, US real interest rates, physical demand (jewellery, industrial use, reserves) and mining supply.

Industrial metals — copper, aluminium, zinc, nickel, lead, tin, iron, cobalt, lithium and rare-earth elements — are the building blocks of global industrial production and infrastructure. Their prices are closely correlated with Chinese economic data, construction activity, automotive and electric-vehicle (EV) production, and energy-transition demand. Copper is historically considered the leading indicator of the world economy, known as “Dr. Copper”.

Grains (wheat, corn, soybean, rice, oats, barley) are the foundation of global food supply and feed directly into food inflation. Prices respond to USDA WASDE reports, weather forecasts (La Niña / El Niño cycles), Ukrainian and Russian grain export quotas, and demand dynamics from major importers (China, Egypt, Indonesia). Soybean and corn derivatives such as cooking oil, soybean meal and ethanol also trade in this category.

Soft commodities are the tropical and Mediterranean agricultural products — coffee (Arabica, Robusta), cocoa, sugar, cotton, orange-juice concentrate, lumber and rubber. These prices are highly sensitive to weather risks (Brazilian frosts, Vietnamese monsoons, West African cocoa belts), changes in planted area and storage costs. Coffee and cocoa are the most liquid soft contracts, often with 30–50% annual volatility.

The livestock & dairy category tracks market prices of animal-origin food supply: live cattle, lean hogs, feeder cattle, boneless beef, plus milk, milk powder, cheese and butter. Prices respond to feed costs (corn, soybean), herd sizes, disease outbreaks (African swine fever, avian flu), global meat-trade bans and export demand from China, Mexico and South Korea.