RBOB gasoline price

The most important gauge is the crack spread: the price difference between RBOB and crude oil, usually Brent or WTI. It directly reflects the refining margin. Traders typically watch the 3:2:1 crack ratio: three barrels of crude oil are assumed to yield two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of diesel. The dollar result shows whether refiners have an incentive to raise output. If the crack spread narrows, refiners cut capacity, tightening gasoline supply and putting upward pressure on RBOB prices.

The driving season creates a strong calendar pattern. Demand peaks between Memorial Day, the last Monday in May, and Labor Day, the first Monday in September, when US households take longer road trips. The summer-to-winter blend switch adds a technical cost. Summer-grade gasoline has lower vapour pressure, or RVP, and requires more expensive components. That alone adds about $0.10–$0.15 per gallon to refinery costs. US gasoline consumption is around 9 million barrels per day.

Refining capacity and hurricane risk are the two main supply-side factors. Total US refining capacity is about 18 million barrels per day, and almost half of it is concentrated on the Gulf Coast, in Texas and Louisiana, directly in the path of the Atlantic hurricane season from June to November. A major storm-related outage can lift RBOB prices within days. The Brent-WTI spread also matters, because coastal refineries process imported crude, so Brent-linked feedstock costs feed directly into the final gasoline price.