TTF natural gas (EU) price

Europe’s gas market has changed sharply since Russian pipeline supply fell. Russia once supplied about 40% of the EU’s roughly 350 billion m³ of annual gas consumption by pipeline. Today that share is in single digits. The gap is filled by liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, Qatar and West Africa, and by higher Norwegian pipeline flows of about 85 billion m³ a year. The TTF price rose above EUR 300/MWh at the peak of the supply shock. Since then, the market has become structurally dependent on LNG imports. That links TTF more closely to the global gas market and makes it more sensitive to weather and geopolitical news.

The annual price pattern is shaped by the EU gas storage rule. Under the regulation, member states must reach a 90% storage filling level by 1 November, with flexibility between 1 October and 1 December. The EU’s combined storage capacity is about 100 billion m³. This creates a spring-summer injection cycle and an autumn-winter withdrawal cycle. Storage buying supports spot prices in summer, while withdrawals offset peak heating demand in winter. Daily GIE AGSI+ data and ENTSOG daily gas-flow statistics are quickly reflected in TTF trading.

Globally, the JKM-TTF spread helps decide where an LNG tanker goes. JKM, the Japan-Korea Marker, is the Asian LNG spot price. If the Asian premium over TTF widens, flexible US LNG cargoes without fixed destinations can move through the Suez Canal to the Far East, leaving fewer tankers for European LNG terminals such as Rotterdam, Zeebrugge, Dunkerque, Gate and Świnoujście. A hot Asian summer or a Japanese nuclear plant outage can therefore lift TTF. Chemical demand cycles, including fertiliser and ethylene, also matter. So does volatile renewable power generation, which changes the load on gas-fired power plants.