Cobalt price

Global cobalt supply is unusually concentrated. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) alone accounts for about 70% of annual mine production — about 170,000 tonnes out of a global total of roughly 230,000 tonnes. A distant second is Indonesia (~20 kt, mainly as a by-product of nickel laterite processing), followed by Russia (~8 kt, Norilsk Nickel) and Australia. About 70-80% of Congolese output comes from large industrial mines operated by groups such as CMOC, Glencore and ERG. A significant share — about 15-20% — still comes from artisanal small-scale mining, where child labour and severely unsafe working conditions have been documented. This supply structure creates ethical risk and can also lead to periodic export restrictions.

On the demand side, electric-vehicle batteries are the main driver: about 60% of global cobalt use goes into batteries. An EV with an NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) cathode contains about 8–12 kg of cobalt, depending on the cell chemistry mix, such as NMC622 versus NMC811. Cathode chemistries are changing quickly. NMC811 uses materially less cobalt than the earlier NMC622 chemistry, while LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cells — common among Chinese manufacturers and in entry-level models — contain no cobalt at all. This shift in the cathode mix structurally lowers average cobalt use per vehicle.

The third major factor is China’s dominance in refining. Most raw cobalt from Congolese mines, in the form of hydroxide or concentrate, is refined in China. Huayou Cobalt, GEM and CMOC together account for more than half of global refining capacity. That creates a concentrated risk for western battery manufacturers, and cobalt is included on the EU critical raw materials list. A smaller but stable source of demand comes from aerospace superalloys. Jet engine combustion chambers and turbine blades often use alloys with high cobalt content, sometimes up to 50%, because cobalt retains strength at high temperatures.